On Wednesday, World Trade Organisation said that Trade in goods hit the lowest level since 2007 in the second quarter of 2020 and a V-shaped rebound “may prove overly optimistic”. During the second quarter of the year, global trade in goods registered a “historic fall” and touched the levels of the 2008 financial crisis. Wednesday’s figure “was the lowest on record in data going back to 2007,” the WTO said.
WTO takes into account recent trends in order to draw a real-time trajectory of global trade. Wednesday’s reading was 84.5 on a scale where 100 corresponds to a trade growth in line with medium-term trends. Automotive goods and air freight were the worst-hit.
WTO forecast on the Wednesday’s data that merchandise trade would have fallen by 18.5 percent in the second quarter, the organization said. It also noted the first signs of a recovery next year but cautioned the rebound might take longer than expected.
“The heavy economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic suggests that the projections for a strong, V-shaped trade rebound in 2021 may prove overly optimistic,” the WTO said, adding that “an L-shaped recovery is a real prospect.”
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